Super Bowl LVIII Blog

Lifetime immunity for former presidents has been all the rage from the redheaded rager. That would be an added perk for after the presidency.  Elon Musk might consider buying in if that was a benefit. Herr Trump is contending that the only way a president can serve is with blanket immunity forever.  There are few if any people who knew that was a thing.  No president has ever been criminally charged as DT now has been so this need for immunity has never been debated. Big Red is having a relatively easy campaign season with Republican hopefuls bailing out faster than Chip Kelly at UCLA. It will be a fascinating fall while our country’s hopes and dreams get splintered.

 

It is exciting for the world to have the Super Bowl in Las Vegas.  The hype can hardly keep up with reality. The NFL is falling all over itself having a wonderful time.  Roger Goodell was feted at a bash full of celebrities.  He indicated he could see a Las Vegas SB as a regular thing in the coming years.  In 2003, the NFL would not allow the TV network to run an ad during the SB for the city of Las Vegas. It was the original what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas campaign.  The NFL vetoed running the ads during the game.  In 2017, Tony Romo wanted to host a Fantasy Football Party in LV.  The NFL crushed that as well.  Whatever small part the Yard played in helping the NFL see the light we ask no credit.

 

The Yard has been a frenzy of activity with the Super Bowl occurring just 8.3 miles from our World Headquarters.  The staff worked feverishly to locate tickets to the Big Game.  We could not justify the $6280 for Section 400 up against the roof.  The $21K for a nice 50-yard line bucket seemed more bucket list except for the 21 large.   We opted for the SB LVIII Cap, shirt, and comfy reservation on the recliner staring at 65 inches of LG goodness.  The bets are being placed and squares drawn up and accounted for. 120 million people in the US will be watching the football pantheon.  There will be 330,000 people laying siege to the LV resort corridor.  Only 65,000 get the coveted golden ticket to Wonka Land so most will be watching the game just like the Yard…on TV.  This city which has 250,000 strong every year for the game without the game, so fun will be everywhere across the valley.  Having the game adds a layer of temporal insanity that Las Vegas has never experienced.  Shaq is throwing a party, Gronk is bringing his show, U2 is at the Sphere, Kelly Clarkson is singing her hits and there is a Super Bowl game on Sunday.  

 

In 1983, the Yard won a sales contest as a rookie salesman for Lanier. The prize was a ticket to Super Bowl XVII at the Rose Bowl. The legendary Ronk managed the office at 1930 Wilshire Blvd adjacent to MacArthur Park.  Lanier was using Arnold Palmer for national television ads and tickets to the Super Bowl were given to the LA office.  Ronk put them up for the contest and the winners got to go.  John Riggins rushed for 166 yards that day and the Washington Redskins belted the Miami Dolphins.  The face value of those tickets was $36.

 

The betting handle for this year’s game Super Bowl LVIII in LV will be colossal.  San Francisco fans are feeling that the dynasty that has been foretold since 1994 might finally happen. Colin K could not get over the line when the lights went out in NOLA.  Jimmy G could not complete the wide-open winning pass in Q4.  Is Brock Purdy the savior for these fans of pretense while returning this proud franchise to the top?  Will Patrick Mahomes solidify his dynastic claim? Will Bieber join Usher in the halftime show?  There is much to be revealed.

 

The Yard is backing Kansas City in this rematch.  The trend line seems to be that it will be a 49er home game.  49er fans generally have more cake and available credit than their midwestern counterparts in their pursuit of attending.  Getting points and Mahomie is sweet when you can find it. This was the year; he was to be exposed without the home field advantage.  The Chiefs would have to win in Buffalo and Baltimore to make it back to Lombardi land. They did just that with efficiency and poise.  Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are unquestionably more talented than Brock Purdy.  SF has a very explosive team and stout defense so it won’t be easy for KC, and games can always go unpredictably sideways.  The Chiefs won their playoff games.  The 49er’s escaped the early rounds to get here.

 

Mahomes vs. Purdy and Reid vs. Shanahan. This KC rent a fan likes those talent matchups.  San Francisco has a powerfully built team starting with Christian McCaffrey.  They have not skimped at any position except place kicker.  The real big mismatch in this game is at kicker.  Last year, the 49ers had Robbie Gould who was a seasoned veteran poised for Super Bowl fame but also earning $5 million.  3rd round pick Jake Moody is only $ 1 million for 2023-4.  He already missed two FG in an early nationally televised MNF game. The 49ers got an L that night. The Super Bowl is not that much bigger, right? Harrison Butker for the Chiefs made 33 of 35 including all five from more than 50 including a 60 yarder.  He kicked the game winner in last year’s game.  If it comes down to this, and it probably will, Chiefs get the W.

 

At the Window: This year bets on proposition bets will exceed the traditional game itself.  Prop bets first started in 1985 with Super Bowl XX.  During the season, Bears coach Mike Ditka had used defensive lineman William “the refrigerator” Perry as fullback in short goal line situations. Perry scored two TD’s during the regular season, but they had not used him in that role in months.  The Bears were a juggernaut, and the 350-pound Perry was just as big a personality. Fans wanted to see the Fridge score a TD in the Super Bowl.  He became a prop bet if Perry would score six in the game.  It opened at 20-1 and was heavily bet.  Perry did score a TD in the game and the books lost nearly $200,000 on that bet but a lesson and opportunity was found.  Today, there are 1000’s of prop bets across multiple betting platforms.  Interestingly, HOF Walter Payton did not score a TD in his only SB in the 46-10 win against the pre-Belichick Patriots.

 

 

After the game: This nonsense talks of Andy Reid retiring if the Chiefs is just that.  Patrick Mahomes is 28 years old and under contract until he is 34.  He is a generational player, and any head coach would want that gig.

Happy New Year from the Yard

Happy New Years from the Yard.  On many levels, we would be happy to flush 2023 down the porcelain but not so fast Johnny.  2024 could be more combustible with the kindling of 2023 hot topic issues unresolved.  Donald Trump is running again because he must.  Trump thirsts for the power and the love of his white male constituents.  Trump also must run because his PAC groups are paying his legal fees while he is a candidate. His donors know about the witches and they are helping the big Mac and Cheese out. He keeps running, they keep paying. The Yard has investigated the legal morass that Trump contends is a political witch hunt.  Well, there are a lot of witches.  Trump has four court cases that are ongoing.  These four cases represent 91 total felonies.  The current legal bills are $27 million and counting.  None of these cases has gone to trial and Trump will not settle.  While his minions take plea deals and Rudy must file BK under $150 million cavalcade of punitive damages, Trump stands defiant.  He is now surrounding himself with new “friends”.  The orchestrators of “the stolen election” narrative are running for the exits.  His family who was everywhere while he was in office is nowhere to be seen now including his wife.  Fun fact:  Trump “allegedly” paid Stormy Daniels $130,000 to keep quiet about their illicit affair.  To date he has spent $1.7 million in legal fees defending himself against the felony bribery charges related to that payoff.  No president in US history has ever been indicted.  The job is big enough for big thinkers, Trump is not one of them.  The job requires all your focus, Trump will be knee deep in legal cases in four states.  He will not be looking out for the country; he will be looking out for himself.  Some things never change.

 

The sports season of 2023 was outstanding for one reason.  UCLA trounced USC 38-20 at the Coliseum.   For many years, USC and UCLA shared that moribund facility as co-tenants.  UCLA bailed in the 1980’s to the verdant pastures of Pasadena. USC was committed to their hood and put some lipstick on the pig.  UCLA has struggled to win at the Trojan’s home turf forever and have been 7-15 there since 1979.  UCLA beat USC eight straight in the 1990’s, still the longest streak in the rivalry.  But the Coliseum was always a tough spot for the Blue and Gold.  Reggie “where is my Heisman” Bush rushed for 260 in 2005 in a 66-19 rout. Ricky Neuheisel rattled King Pete’s cage in 2011 by calling timeout with 86 seconds to go trailing 43-0.  Matt Barkley did not take a knee, he play-faked and threw a 50-yard TD to finish a 50-0 victory.  So, it is sweet to beat USC at home by 18 points.  Yard staff thinks the 62-33 beatdown in South Central was better in 2021.  It is all good.

 

Dodger baseball has been in the news of late.  We understand that committing a billion in payroll to two players seems excessive.  The Dodgers are one of the most profitable teams in the majors so they will figure it out. I will put a link to the August 13 Blog, but we predicted, not a stretch, that the Dodgers were saving their 2022-23 money for Ohtani in 2024.  Shohei got his $700 million. We did not know Yoshinobu Yamamoto was going to join the roster for another $300 million.  He could be a better pitcher than Ohtani, but Shohei is a unicorn.  Here are a few fun facts: Ohtani as a batter has been walked intentionally 14 times.  Ohtani the pitcher has never issued one.  On June 21, 2022, against the Royals he hit two home runs and drove in eight runs.  On June 22, 2022, against the same Royals, Ohtani pitched eight shutout innings, allowed just two hits, and struck out thirteen.  There has never been anyone like him including the Babe.  He will not pitch in 2024 but he will be in the starting lineup, and there will be three future HOF playing most days. It will be fun for Dodger fans.

 

In the CFP, the Yard is picking Michigan and Washington to meet in the championship.  We are not done with our analytics, but we do not like Nick Saban.  He is the Darth Vader of college football, but he is tough to beat in bowl games.  His record at Alabama is 16-6 in bowl games with six national championships.  Michigan has put together an undefeated season and are 1.5 favorites.  Jim Harbaugh head coaching record in bowl games is 2-7 which includes six straight losses.  Among them a loss to Saban and the Tide in the 2020 Citrus Bowl 35-16. That was the only other time that Saban and Harbaugh have faced each other in a college football game of any type.  Harbaugh has his work cut out for him, but he had lost seven straight to Ohio State before he won the last three in a row.  He does not get credit this year because he got suspended…again.  We like him because he is tenacious, pugnacious, and aggressive with a pinch of psychosis while appearing mildly detached.  It has worked for Jimmy, and we hope he gets over the hump, wins the National Championship and then comes to Las Vegas to coach the Raiders.

 

In the other game, we like UW because we also dislike Seven-Win Sark who did win 12 this year.  Michael Penix is the real deal for the Huskies.  He beat a heavily favored Oregon Ducks flamethrowers in the Pac-12 Championship.  UW and Michigan are the only unbeaten and we hope they play for the CFP National Championship.

 

Happy New Year!

Funeral for a friend.

We are going to miss George Santos at the Yard. He was his own news cycle with each story more fantastical than the last.  He always had a smile on his face while stitching elliptical storylines.  He seems crazy like Elon Musk without the money, or maybe he was Elon Musk? Have they ever been seen together?  George threatened his colleagues as he swished his winter scarf, packed up his juice boxes and exited the Capital.  He will be forgotten except for the People magazine article “Where are they now” in ten years. 

 

In 1969, Indira Gandhi was appointed prime minister of India. She ruled for eleven years and established India as the dominant power in Southeast Asia.  It was a pivotal point in the history of India. In 1979, Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister of the UK. The Iron Lady governed the United Kingdom boldly until 1990.  In her first year her approval rating was 23% but her government turned around the British economy within 24 months. On November 22, 2005, Angela Merkel became the first female Chancellor in Germany’s troubling history of national leaders. Merkel was frequently referred to as the de facto leader of the EU and the most powerful woman in the world.  The United States has never had a woman lead our nation. It is not a box to check on a diversity test, it is a pragmatic observation from the Yard.  Women have had to prove themselves as collaborators and consensus builders in a patriarchal world since thenever.  Women have time and again proven themselves as tremendous leaders and warriors in business and government.  It might be time to find her to quell this political dumpster fire, so it does not go back to the original source of the combustion. Just saying…

 

The Oakland city council has passed an 8-0 resolution condemning the Hamas attack on Israel.  After weeks of local protests by both Israeli and Palestinian citizens in the Alameda County community, the council felt they needed to act.  It is unclear how the city council felt this resolution was going to appease the Hamas supporters and the vote was contentious.  Yard outsiders would suggest that Oakland has far bigger local issues than the war in the Middle East.  It is also very clear that the Oakland resolution has had zero impact in the Middle east hostilities while increasing them locally.  There is a reason that they are the only city in Alameda county to publicly weigh in on it. 

 

At the Yard, it is all about college football for the next five weeks.  There will be many important NFL games and the NFL will own our attention soon enough.  The CFP was announced this past weekend.  It is a big deal within the Yard spectrum. Tallahassee was not so thrilled with the decision, but all the playoff teams seem deserving despite the omission of FSU.  We did attend the Pac-12 Funeral Bowl at Allegiant Stadium Friday night. The final game in the 109-year history of the Pacific Coast Conference was bittersweet.  We went with Mr. and Mrs. f--ing Lawlor and they were wonderful hosts, tall boys at the TG and all.  The missus is a Ducks alum and I had $35 worth of fandom riding on an Oregon victory. Washington controlled their destiny by beating Oregon.  They did in strong fashion because Oregon has been rolling everyone since Washington beat them at the lake in October.  Not on this Friday night. Alabama lay the Bulldogs bare in Atlanta and sent them packing.  We do think Georgia is one of the best four teams, but they needed to lose that one game in September or October not December.  UNLV tried to win their second Mountain West title.  They did not and the Boise State Broncos won their 5^th.  The Broncos had been there before, and it showed. Texas obliterated Oklahoma State and leapfrogged the field into the 4^th spot. 

 

The end of the PAC-12 is sad commentary on college athletics.  It is the evolution of college football and sports programming.  NCAA basketball has CBS as their benefactor who pays the big bill and then parses it down to TBS, TNT, TruTv among others.  ESPN does not get to eat from that table. The origins of the Pacific Coast Conference trace back to 1915.  The OGs were the original PAC-8 UCLA, USC, Stanford, CAL, UO, OSU, UW, WSU.  Along the way Idaho and Montana were part of the mix.  It was a rocky ride until 1959. There was no television, just boosters bending rules, shifting academic standards and rivalries.  Some things never change.

 

College football became beholden to the television money.  Like crack addicts always looking for a better high, the academics kept chasing better TV deals.  ESPN helped fuel the splintering into several Regional Sports Networks.  Comcast, Fox, and others jumped into this “lucrative” enterprise.  In the beginning, it was a lucrative, collaborative partnership among the universities. The egalitarian essence of college worked for a bit. Then the haves were not as keen as splitting the pie equally with the have nots.  Truth be told neither group was aware there were two groups until recently.  When the bigger programs colluded and blindsided their siblings, the football landscape forever changed.  Universities have become unregulated Fortune 500 types with huge endowments, preferential tax status, land holdings and police forces. The students provide camouflage from where the sausage is being made.

 

RIP:  The Pac-12 breathed its potential last breath on Friday night at Allegiant stadium. The last two standing are Oregon State and Washington State.  These final two from the original 8 are still holding on to what is left of the conference.  There is revenue and the Pac-12 network still in play.  These schools have worked out a scheduling arrangement with the Mountain West Conference for 2024.  They may opt to join the conference in the future.  There is equity in the Pac-12 name and history.  There could be a future where the Pac-whatever and Mountain West establishes a new brand.  Maybe they can salvage that expensive vanity project television network.  They do have nice offices in downtown SF and a studio.